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Guvernul Romaniei prognozeaza un cutremur devastator in 2009

07.06.08 16:12

Guvernul Romaniei avertizeaza, printr-un document oficial, ca seismele cu magnitudine de 7 grade pe scara Richter revin o data la 32 de ani. La un calcul logic, avand in vedere ca ultimul mare seism a fost in 1977, 2009 ar fi anul in care Romania va fi lovita de un cutremur devastator.

Precizarea a fost facuta in Strategia de comunicare si informare publica pentru situatii de urgenta, care a fost publicata vineri in Monitorul Oficial.

Informatia i-a uimit pe specialistii din domeniu, care sustin ca nimeni nu poate sa prevada cand va avea loc urmatorul cutremur de magnitudine mare, relateaza Antena 3.

Documentul prezinta principalele riscuri la adresa populatiei si felul in care autoritatile ar trebui sa comunice in situatiile de criza. Intre potentialele scenarii catastrofale, "hazardurile seismice" reprezinta capitolul cel mai detaliat. Intr-un fragment din documentul elaborat de guvern, si prezentat de Evenimentul Zilei, se sugereaza chiar si un calcul probabilistic.

"In conformitate cu studiile efectuate in acest domeniu de institutii specializate, cutremurele cu o magnitudine de 7 grade pe scara Richter au o perioada medie de revenire de 32 de ani", se arata in document.

In ceea ce priveste regulile de actiune in timpul seismului, primele mentionate sunt pozitionarea in interiorul locuintei, protectia individuala si a copiilor si inchiderea surselor care pot provoca pagube colaterale, de exemplu gazele.

De asemenea, se arata in document, oamenii ar trebui sa stie cum sa supravietuiasca daca sunt prinsi sub daramaturi, si sa cunoasca locul de intalnire cu membrii familiei, in cazul in care locuinta este distrusa.

Surse din cadrul Institutului de Fizica a Pamantului dezmint insa varianta unui astfel de calcul. Directorul Institutului de Fizica a Pamantului, Gheorghe Marmureanu, spune, insa, ca acest calcul este "o aberatie". "Credeti ca Pamantul stie matematica sau calcule probabilistice? E o aiureala! Nimeni nu poate sa prevada cand va avea loc urmatorul cutremur. In seismologie nici nu se mai foloseste notiunea de perioada medie de revenire", a declarat Marmureanu, pentru EvZ. (Ziare.com)


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